There is no mystery about what happened Tuesday night. Unlike 2016, when the anticipation of Hillary Clinton’s victory turned into the shock of defeat, every smart analyst I know not only thought Donald Trump could win in 2024, they also knew he could potentially win in a blowout. In every election, he’s outperformed his polling, and we knew it could happen again.
There’s also no mystery as to why this happened. Even before Joe Biden took office, it was clear that Trump retained his hold on the Republican Party. After Jan. 6, it was Mike Pence’s approval rating that plunged among Republicans, not Trump’s. Once Trump escaped conviction in the Senate for a second time, he was always in the driver’s seat to be the next Republican nominee.
That meant he was the only alternative option for voters who were still dealing with the consequences of inflation or alarmed by the surge of migrants at the border or concerned about wars abroad. Warnings about democracy or consternation over the state of international alliances were just too downstream from their lives.
They also remembered better days from the first part of Trump’s first term. The combination of that memory and Trump’s projections of authority and confidence appealed to them. Democracies are always vulnerable to demagogues, never more so than when they’re tested by economic uncertainty at home or chaos abroad.
But I’m less interested in why Trump won than I am in exploring what Trump’s opponents should do next. I’m already seeing evidence of despair. There’s a combination of exhaustion (it’s been more than nine years since Trump announced his first run for president) and a feeling of futility (Trump is stronger than ever before).
There’s a temptation to retreat. If you have a stable job, a good family and good friends, you can check out of politics. After all, politics can be painful. It’s not just the pain of loss, but also the pain of engagement itself. MAGA is extraordinarily cruel to its political opponents.
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